Sara Errani - Victoria Azarenka 18.05.2013

This has been a strange tournament for Sara Errani (6) in Rome. She had a very tough match against an inspired Christina McHale (55) in her first match but hasn’t had to play much since then. Her second match was against Kirilenko (12) who retired in the 2nd set of their match and then the in-form Sharapova (2) surprisingly decided to withdraw due to a virus. So although Errani hasn’t had much match-time on court, she’s had had plenty of time for practice and recuperation from a tough tournament in Madrid last week.

In Madrid she reached the semi-final where she put up a good fight against Serena Williams, losing 7-5 6-2 and I think she would fancy a rematch against the American in the final tomorrow in front of her home fans.

Victoria Azarenka (3) has not played anywhere near as much tennis on clay this year. This is only her second tournament on the surface and she played poorly in Madrid, losing to Makarova (24) in her 2nd match. This week she’s improved but she struggled yesterday against Stosur (9). The out of form Australian who had never previously beaten her, managed to dominate large parts of their match. She won 7 games in a row at one stage, so Errani and her coach will fancy their chances, having watched the match. Stosur played well but she lacked consistency from the back of the court and this ultimately cost her the match.

Errani won’t have that problem as she is a much more consistent player than Stosur. I also think she’s a very strong player mentally and with the support of the home crowd tomorrow she has a great chance of causing an upset here.

Azarenka can get very nervous when a match gets tight and she can also get very annoyed when crowds get on her back. She certainly won’t have many fans in the crowd for this match and the Italian crowd will do all they can to support their player.

Given the situation I think that Errani is a very good value bet here.

Sara Errani to beat Victoria Azarenka @ 4.09